Ivan Smirnov, Leading Research Fellow of the Laboratory of Computational Social Sciences at the Institute of Education of HSE University, has created a computer model that can distinguish high academic achievers from lower ones based on their social media posts. The prediction model uses a mathematical textual analysis that registers users' vocabulary (its range and the semantic fields from which concepts are taken), characters and symbols, post length, and word length. Every word has its own rating (a kind of IQ). Scientific and cultural topics, English words, and words and posts that are longer in length rank highly and serve as indicators of good academic performance. An abundance of emojis, words or whole phrases written in capital letters, and vocabulary related to horoscopes, driving, and military service indicate lower grades in school.

It has already been established that digital traces can be used to predict various human attributes. In most cases, however, predictive models rely on features that are specific to a particular source of digital trace data. In contrast, short texts written by users $-$ tweets, posts, or comments $-$ are ubiquitous across multiple platforms. In this paper, we explore the predictive power of short texts with respect to the academic performance of their authors. We use data from a representative panel of Russian students that includes information about their educational outcomes and activity on a popular networking site, VK. We build a model to predict academic performance from users' posts on VK and then apply it to a different context. In particular, we show that the model could reproduce rankings of schools and universities from the posts of their students on social media. We also find that the same model could predict academic performance from tweets as well as from VK posts. The generalizability of a model trained on a relatively small data set could be explained by the use of continuous word representations trained on a much larger corpus of social media posts. This also allows for greater interpretability of model predictions.